Trade Wars (Ep 106)
Amid rising market volatility and growing uncertainty, global trade tensions are back in focus. In this episode, we unpack how China’s economic behavior, shifting alliances, and Trump’s tariff strategy could be reshaping the postwar order. We’ll look closely at what’s driving the realignment and what it could mean for investors, policymakers, and global markets.
Transcript - The following transcript was generated by a robot, so please excuse any typos or inaccuracies.
Brian Doe 0:01
Today on make the dough rise. We're going to take a look at Trump and tariffs. We have unprecedented market activity, and we are living through historic times. I'm going to take a look back, tell you my theory on what's happening and give suggestions on where we go from here. Stay tuned.
Speaker 1 0:22
It's time to make the dough rise. The financial podcast with Brian doe Hey,
Walter Storholt 0:31
welcome to another episode of Make the dough rise. I'm Walter storholtz alongside Brian doe Of course, certified financial planner at living worth Wealth Advisors based in Greensboro, Georgia, but serving clients all across the country. You can find us online at make the DOE rise.com and Brian, you teased us well with what's coming up today. Going to try and make sense of everything that's happening lately, in the markets, in the economy, and I know you're going to try and help us kind of understand what's going on, because that seems to be the big part of this problem is people just don't really understand the why and the how, and it's just lots of ups and downs and changes. So we're gonna try and cut through all that today and get some clarity from you, my friend. But before we get into all that, what's going on elsewhere in life?
Brian Doe 1:13
Yeah, well, hopefully we can make sense of these historic times. It's changing so fast, but our end, we have gone through a major spinal surgery with Natalie. And while scary the going into it and certainly concerned about any thing that could go wrong, we had a great experience. The The surgery went phenomenal. They basically had to fuse her thoracic spine because she had a scoliosis that was creating a angle of over 45 degrees between two of her vertebrae, and it was like a top and bottom of the curve. And that's the point at which they either need to do surgery or, I guess, maybe hope it gets better, and there is not much therapeutic they can do once, once they stop growing. So we decided to proceed with the surgery. And great surgeon. It was so cool to see the technology and the imaging and the robotics and all the tools that we used to get the accuracy and the result that they want. So just really, really impressed by the entire process.
Walter Storholt 2:23
Man, that's awesome that you had such great care. And I'm glad to hear things are going well at this point through what was a scary situation. And boy, just kind of throw that into the mix while everything in the market was crazy, while being a financial advisor and having to keep your pulse on what's going on there.
Brian Doe 2:39
I'll warn you, if I'm less than coherent today, it's because it were two weeks out from the surgery, and that the week of the surgery was, you know, a nail biter, and we were living we were in Atlanta for four nights, and stayed at the Ronald McDonald House, which, by the way, I'll put in a quick plug. I am thoroughly impressed with that organization. It's amazing what they're doing and providing for families that need it and are needing long term. We met some families that were having to stay for weeks or even months for different treatments. I felt very fortunate to be able to be in and out of there, and they're really helping a lot of people that maybe don't have the resources for the stay they need. So I'm going to become a big advocate for for them going forward, 100% I thought we were doing that about
Walter Storholt 3:26
the Ronald McDonald House over the years. Yeah,
Brian Doe 3:29
it's fantastic, but we did that. Then we brought her home, and it's been kind of like having a newborn at home. Every couple hours, we got to give her different medication or roll her around and all these things. So that all happened, and then the market went crazy. And everybody's not panicking, but, you know, they just, they want some reassurance. So, yeah, definitely been on my toes here lately.
Walter Storholt 3:49
All happening while it's also now masters week, and you live in Georgia, so just a little bit of a big deal down there, right? Oh,
Brian Doe 3:56
it's huge. Yeah, we've got all kinds of people coming in. We're close enough to Augusta that a lot of people stay here. And obviously we have so many golf courses, people can come and stay here and golf part of the time, and maybe they have a batch of tickets, and they take turns with a different group going down to different days of the masters and all that kind of stuff. So yeah, it's very busy around here. But are you speaking of the masters? Are you familiar with the Augusta rule when it comes to tax
Walter Storholt 4:23
planning? The Augusta rule? No, please enlighten. Yeah. No. This is just a
Brian Doe 4:28
little masters or Georgia trivia for you here, back in the 70s, I believe it was the I don't know who advocated for this, or how it came to be, but they created a law that said, if you rent your personal residence for two weeks or less, the income that you receive is going to be tax free, and it was in response to Augusta and trying to create the capacity for the influx of people that were coming for an event like that, because Augusta doesn't isn't really set. Up like a major city where they have lots of large hotels and conference centers and things like that. So I'm thus, yes, yeah, my guess is it was to stimulate a short term supply without having to, you actually build infrastructure that wouldn't get used the other, you know, 50 weeks of the year. And so it's, it gets your house gets categorized by and the rate that you get is driven by the number of bedroom bathroom combos that you have. So for each bedroom bathroom, separate bathroom, you know, it could be a five bedroom house, but if you only have three bedrooms, it's, it only gets billed as a three bedroom. I'm curious. I'm going to actually go look and see what the ratio of bedrooms to bathrooms is in Augusta, because I know over the years, because my father in law has done this, they make sure they put in an extra bathroom, because at masters time, that will earn them a premium rent. And with it being tax free, it pays off. So just just a little bit of trivia there and curiosity about a kind of a odd market distortion and a IRS law that was created and adapted for it. Yeah,
Walter Storholt 6:10
that's pretty cool. I asked chat GPT if there was any data on the bathroom, bedroom ratio. Specifically in Augusta doesn't look like it had that at its fingertips. So we
Speaker 2 6:22
have to get into xello and like, yeah, you have to do some more digging on that one
Brian Doe 6:26
deeper query or something. Yeah,
Walter Storholt 6:27
yeah, exactly. Well, very cool and neat that that rule has now stuck around, and it's turned into a great opportunity for a lot of people locally, and I'm sure that has spread to other areas I know, like when you know, with NASCAR Right? Like people that live near racetracks rent their homes out around race week, probably taking advantage of that same kind of setup and situation, and probably some other events all around the country as well. So graduations, things like that. The
Brian Doe 6:53
number of creative waves that you can use that loophole, if you will, or law rule, whatever you want to call it, but yeah, big, big one around here.
Walter Storholt 7:01
Well, let's get into today's topic. Brian, our timing is pretty interesting. You guys, you know, we'd scheduled the time to record. I'm just gonna tell everybody, because I think the timing is interesting. It's April 10, and so that we're taping today's episode, that's Thursday, which is the day after. We didn't know this is how things were going to transpire, but it's the day after. We had the big market downturns, followed by the 90 day pause on the tariffs, and thus the big market increase. All of the sudden happened on Wednesday. So we're only a few hours post that big turnaround. And boy, I know that that just kind of added complexity to the week for you. I hear also, by the way, a story where you were on a on a call, and while you were speaking that that whole turnaround happened. So someone joked that you literally made the dough rise with your presence there.
Brian Doe 7:53
Yeah, well, I was speaking to the the president of the of the firm, and he'd sent out a message to all the other advisors, saying, I'm on the phone with Brian doe, and the market is up, you know, a couple 1000 points. I just wanted to let everybody know what we're doing for you. And it was, it was a joke and kind of goading everybody, but everybody's like, stay on the phone, you know, keep talking, whatever you're doing. It's work. And then somebody said he's literally making the dough rise. And it was funny. Yeah,
Walter Storholt 8:20
that's fun. Well, I know you probably don't have those magic powers. You know, we can't pull that out on demand. So help us make sense of everything that's gone on here in 2025 so far, and more specifically, the last couple of weeks, with tariffs and trade wars and the ups and downs of the market. And I think a lot of people just just don't quite understand this scenario, and maybe what Trump and his team are trying to accomplish and the consequences of it all, it's a little hard to wrap your head around for the average person. I think it is
Brian Doe 8:48
hard to know if what's happening is by design or by accident, but I will say the some of the people around Trump, the Treasury Secretary Besant, I think is his last name. Really a smart guy, and he's been involved in a lot of historic events and economic events in the past, and really a calming figure. If you listen to him, he explains things very well, but I have a theory about what's happening. And if you listen to just the mainstream news, it's all hysterics. It's all focused on what how either ridiculous this is or how amazing this is. It's very polarized, but it doesn't really get to the core issues underneath it. And so what I did was, I know in the past, I have talked a lot about different trends and geopolitical events, different authors that I've read, and different economic outlook. We talked about wisdom of crowds and what that means. And I was listening to an interview with the author of that book, and you just there's so many people. Trying to make sense of it, and people will criticize the surface. Oh, is this formula that he used is stupid, or he, you know what? Why is he picking on this little country over here? And as it turns out, there's actually some rhyme and reason to all of the things that that they've done. But I first want to go back, and I've got to give credit again to Peter zeihan here and his book The Accidental superpower. Great read. If you want to go back and understand where how America really came to preeminence around the world economically, and our position in the world today. The dollar is a reserve currency. You have to go back to post World War Two. And if you think about it for a minute, the US could have said, Hey, we won. You're all going to become territories or subjects of or we're going to, you know, we weren't out for land to conquer and conquest. In fact, just the opposite. We were still stringing up the electric grid out in western Nebraska, and had a long way to go here with our own internal development and infrastructure build out. So we weren't really interested in taking over the rest of the world. And instead, what we did was said to everyone around the world, hey, we're gonna do a couple things. We're gonna help you rebuild. We're gonna give you access to our markets, and we're going to police the world's oceans and make sure that everybody has safe passage for all their their goods and services. We will use the dollar as the reserve currency. I'm giving it a very abbreviated version of the story here, lots of detail that and meat on the bone here, that if you want more, you can, you can go read about the Bretton Woods accords and all that kind of stuff. But all of this was maybe benevolence on our part, but it definitely gave us a position of power and authority around the world and so but it was going to come at a certainly a cost, you know, policing the world's oceans, running the Navy, which we still had after the war. I think there was also a hope that there would be a spread of capitalism and economic prosperity, and countries would become more democratic and open and all of these things. And so for this great deal that the US put out, the condition was you could be part of the club as long as you side with us against Russia, which, if you think at the time, that was the USSR, and they were big and powerful and scary, basically what then ushered us into the Cold War period. But we set up these trade alliances. We had the great economic boom. All these other countries industrialized. They were able to export their things that they made, or minerals and resources that they had that there was, was their particular specialty. And slowly over time, I think some of the other countries said, hey, you know, we need some tax revenue off of this. You know, maybe we'll just charge some tariffs on stuff coming in. And maybe there was a trade imbalance they were, there was we were buying more from them than we were from us, but we really didn't care. Like, the prosperity was so huge here in the US. We had not been touched by the war. We had the baby boom. Everybody was buying stuff for kids and building houses, and, you know, we had oil and gas resources here, and just just plenty of agriculture, timber, land, all the things that we needed to go and then as countries needed to sell to us. We were a wealthy and capable buyer. We didn't get too hung up on if they were charging us a little bit of tariff or if there was an imbalance, and we nobody paid too much attention to that. Well, then by the mid nine, mid to late 90s, if you go back and you can find some actual clips, also of people like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, the big issue of the day was whether to let China into the World Trade Organization and give them most favored nation trading status. And at the time, everybody had their little charts and their billboards up there, and they were pointing to the deficits, the trade deficits and the tariffs, and they were advocating against giving China most favored nation status and World Trade Organization membership because of these very issues that they now. I guess because Trump's advocating forum, they're now fine. I don't it, just it does it doesn't make it. I almost feel like a I've become a mid 90s. Democrat as I go back and look at some of the policies and things that they were advocating that I actually like about what Trump is doing now
Walter Storholt 15:09
interesting. When you go back and able to do some history lessons like that and find what prior comments have sounded like, and do comparisons to today's takeaways,
Brian Doe 15:20
it has just morphed into a good relationship with most countries of the world, Southeast Asia, India, somewhat definitely, Japan, Europe, Canada, Mexico, obviously. But the problem today is China is has not grown into the open, free trading, democratic society that we hope they would be. In fact, just the opposite. They're manipulating markets. They're subsidizing industries. They're taking over, like the rare earth minerals. They subsidize that so heavily that there's much talk about it, but it's because the Chinese government has maintained so much state control over the businesses, and they are propping up the industries so that nobody can really compete with them. They're cheating, they're manipulating their currency, they're stealing our intellectual property. They're just generally being a bad actor. And everybody knows this. I was, I was in Hong Kong in 1997 I was doing finishing up part of my MBA at Hong Kong Baptist University. I was there for the handover of Hong Kong back to China. It was really interesting time to to be there in the mix of it. And Hong Kong was still very British at the time. But if you looked out on the streets, I mean, there were, there was just knockoffs of everything you could buy Microsoft Office. Remember, they had it on the CD ROMs, and you'd buy the software and install it on your computer. The good advice, the good old days, right? It wasn't all in the cloud, but you could buy, you know, pirated software and movies and music, and you go to the markets, and it was just knockoffs of Nike and Adidas and all the US brands, and you know, they don't do anything to give you any recourse for intellectual property rights, trademark infringement, all of their top companies. You know, if you look at their search engines, their e commerce, they're they're all just knock offs of US companies. So they've not really created anything new. The real innovation does not lie in China. They're just, they come create a partnership, they steal all your stuff, they reverse engineer it, and then they go undercut you in the world markets. And that's been going on for 3040, years, arguably, maybe longer, and it's, I think it's just finally come to a head where Trump is finally taking them on. And it
Walter Storholt 18:07
seems to me like there's this real struggle of short term versus long term payoffs. Is that part of what you're sort of reading into this as well? And that's part of the struggle for folks to kind of read the tea leaves. Yeah,
Brian Doe 18:19
I think we have let things incrementally progress for so long, and it's become a problem. People have been aware of the problem, but nobody's been able to actually tackle it head on. And I think there was also this continued thing of idea that, well, let's just move them on to the next step. Let's get them most favored nation. Let's get them in the World Trade Organization. Hopefully they'll begin acting like other BBG seven partners and things like that, where we have good and fair trade relations. And that just simply has not happened, and they have really hollowed out so much of what were middle class jobs here in the US manufacturing, obviously, the textile industry is gone. With the exception of carpets. Up in Dalton, Georgia, there's a water interestingly, is the competitive advantage there. That is the reason they haven't been able to steal that industry. But at some point this needed to be dealt with. And so here's my theory. Are you ready for my grand theory? Bring it on. All right. So as the US approached the rest of the world and created this alliance against the USSR by using the trade and the markets and economic prosperity as the carrot, I would argue. And I don't know if this is like consciously the strategy or not, but what I see happening is we're Trump is out, cutting a new deal, and he has he. He announced the tariffs and urged other countries not to retaliate. And about 70 countries said, Okay, well, they got in line and said, Okay, we're ready to negotiate. Some of them very quickly said, You're right. We shouldn't be charging you tariffs that we'll drop them to zero, and all of the people who are truly our allies and good trading partners and recognize the value of being a good trading partner with the US. We are still the largest economy. We consume massive amounts of their stuff. They don't want to lose the US market. And like, let's say 70 of the top countries lined up and said, Yeah, yeah, we're on board. We're not going to retaliate, but we need to negotiate the details of this. Let's get together. The one country that in particular that was the bad actor, was China, and they retaliated. And the EU tried to protest a little bit, maybe Canada a little bit, but they kind of backed down pretty quickly, and maybe I don't know where we're at with EU exactly, but Britain, because of Brexit, they were able to come to us directly and we negotiated, or they were able to express their willingness to go along with a new accord, and then they desperately need to. But because China retaliated, it gave Trump the opportunity to identify the allies and identify the quote, unquote enemy or opponent. And so he is, in my theory, I think he's going to do a lot like we did after World War Two. He's going to go to every other country and say, hey, we'll, we'll have a favorable trade deal with you. You don't tariff our stuff coming in we won't tariff your stuff coming into our country. We'll continue this trade relationship. And this, again, the selfish incentive here is to keep the dollar as the strong reserve currency. And then he dropped the tariffs on a 90 day pause with all countries except China, and it has backed China, really, into a corner, and the rest of the world saying at the end of the day, if we have to side with one or the other, we're probably going to go with the US. And it'll be interesting to see how it plays out, because Xi Jinping has really cornered power and silenced dissenting voices, and he's really gotten just a monolithic control on the country. So it's all going to be driven by what he decides, or people who think they're acting on his behalf decide, but the ego and the the plan and the grand plan for China has just been to be this world dominant power they're Busy with the Belt and Road Initiative. Are you familiar with that concept? Walter? So they they basically been trying to reconstruct the the old Silk Road, which was the major, you know, trade corridor from China through through to the Middle East, but also adding to it, major strategic ports and trading partners around the world. And so they're out using all this excess capital that they get by being a net exporter. And they're going to other countries and saying, Hey, side with us. Set up a port, set up a road corridor. They're doing this all through Central Asia and Southeast Asia and into Africa and even over into the Latin America and places like that. And they're they're building, it looks like a good deal. They're building ports and railroad infrastructure and roads and things like that. But they're using it with they, I think they presented it somewhat as a grant, or they were going to just help out, and then now they're turning it around and say, Oh no, no, that was a loan, and now you've got to pay us back. And it's a sneaky way of forcing people into having a favorable trade relationship with you that is spilling over into what's happening in with the Panama Canal. So that's my theory. I think Trump's going to go get everybody to ally with us on trade. The deal is, is you got to work with us to push China to play fair, or shut them out to some degree until they decide that they can. I'm no grand geopolitical strategist. No, Trump's not listening to me, but that's just, I see a parallel from what's happening now on the trade war, where it's not a hot war, it's not it's not even like a Cold War with like a military undertone to it. This is more of a trade technology, cyber. You know, monetary type war, if you will. And I think Trump just has the fortitude and the willingness to take it on, so I don't know. We'll see what happens.
Walter Storholt 25:12
Yeah, it's a lot to kind of keep track of, especially when it's not just the trade war, but, like you mentioned, the Panama Canal and efforts to buy Greenland and all the other things that we've seen over the last couple of months, you know, it's been a flurry of activity and changes, and Doge coming onto the scene, and it's just left and right, so many different little moves being made and levers being pulled.
Brian Doe 25:35
But, but, you know, those are all connected, like those all go, go back to China, the Greenland idea, the Panama Canal, those all circle back to Chinese influence over either a key transportation port with, in case, in the case of the Panama Canal, and if we have, because of the like global warming and the climate change that we've had, the idea is that there could be a Arctic passage as the ice thaws. There's never been a good northern passage for Russia and China to really access, through to Canada or the US. And if there is a trade route emerging there, and if the ISIS thawed and the icebreaker technology has improved, there is a race to create an Arctic passage. And if China and or Russia crack that, and we're not there to, you know, exert our force and make sure things go our way and we're protected militarily, because that could be the other sneak maneuver is, is having worship submarines, things like that that could get into North Atlantic waters. So everybody is making fun of Trump like Greenland. What are you gonna buy? Great. That's ridiculous, if you've paid attention to longer term geopolitical ideas. These are not new concepts. These are things people have been talking about, maybe just purely in theory, but Greenland does play a key geographic strategic role, and they have some minerals and resources that might be good, and they are closer to the US, and then they are to Denmark, so I don't know. We'll see what happens with that. The other crazy one that isn't as China related, but the idea of making Alberta a state. Have you heard that one?
Walter Storholt 27:44
I would not. No, that one slipped under the radar. I mean, I heard the jokes of making all of Canada the 51st state, but not Alberta specifically.
Brian Doe 27:52
So the idea is that Alberta has all these gas and oil resources they're selling primarily into the US, but Ontario and Quebec have been abusing the starch out of Alberta because they want all of the money from Alberta Oil and gas resources to fund all of the social and welfare programs of the rest of Canada. And Albertans are sick and tired of it, and Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have very much followed the green dream, and they don't want to put in oil and gas infrastructure, refining capabilities, pipelines. They're championing the carbon tax like they're doing everything they can to kill the oil and gas industry, but at the same time, taxing the heck out of it to fund all of their programs. It was just the dumbest way to run a country that you can imagine. And so Peter Zion recognized the fact that, you know, like culturally and economically and the motivations of Albertans actually fits in very nicely with Midwestern us. What's going on in the Dakotas and the oil and gas fracking and infrastructure development. And actually, if you connected the Alberta to the US, it would connect Alaska to the mainland, and we would have a nice little corridor that we could drive to Alaska without having to cross customs. But it's an idea that was floated as sort of a ridiculous but like it makes sense on paper, but it would never happen kind of thing, sure. Well, now there's actually talk in Alberta of putting a referendum to in the US and become a state. I don't think those things will like actually go anywhere, but I think it's the idea that you put this crazy notion out there to push policy in the. Rest of the country. It's like, say hey, if you don't, if you keep abusing us like this, we'll just go join the US. And the US would be like, hey, yeah, we'd love to have you. That would be great. Then maybe the leadership in Ontario and Quebec and the other provinces will say, hey, maybe, maybe we should do more to help Alberta, because at the moment, and this doesn't factor it into Trump's tariffs, but at the moment, Canadians are having to sell their oil and gas to the US at about a 20% discount to the world markets because they don't have the refining capacity. They don't have the ports to export and sell to the world markets. They can only sell to us in a limited manner where where the pipelines and infrastructure do exist. So it's just, it's unfortunate to see what's happening with Canada. Their average GDP gross domestic product per capita is about 60% of the US right now, and that should be a rich and prosperous country, and it's kind of circling the drain, in my opinion, right now. So I don't want to get too far off the topic, but there is tremendous opportunity for a lot of countries, Japan, India, Southeast Asia, Mexico, Canada, England, possibly France. If you go read any of Peter Zions material and forecast, you'll see that a lot of the stuff that's happening, this may be the catalyst that drives it forward, and if it does, it is going to be a massive economic boom for the US and this hemisphere and our trading partners. That's my projection for it. It's just going to be a little little turbulent as it all plays out.
Walter Storholt 31:51
Thank you for breaking it all down for us. Brian, definitely fascinating to see it all play out, but you've given some clarity to maybe some of the reasons why some of these things are happening and creating some links between some of these items that others maybe haven't seen in the past. And you're right, well, there's still some unpredictability here with how it's all going to shake out and what directions we're going to go in. But I'm sure will not be the last time we talk about this in 2025 so more,
Brian Doe 32:17
and I'll be, I'll be curious to come back in a couple years when this all shakes out and maybe this, see if you write, I hope this podcast ages. Well, how about that? Right? Yeah, we'll
Walter Storholt 32:27
find out. But I like that we're at least having the discussions, having the conversation, seeing what makes sense, where there's reasoning, and not just kind of the knee jerk reactions to the news that we sometimes get with when emotions are running high. So it's good to talk these things out, see where the logic might lie, see where there's still some uncertainty, and try to find some understanding in all of it. Well, if you have been really perturbed by a lot of the ups and downs in the market over the last couple of days, not necessarily the politics of it, but if the numbers going up and down caused you some heartburn and some frustration over the last few weeks, that might be a sign that you don't have a great plan in place to deal with these kinds of times. If you've got a great plan in place, then you know these should just be interesting times, and not necessarily something that's causing you to worry about your entire financial future. And if that is more on the side of the scale that you are on, take that as a cue to get a review of your financial plan and take control of your financial future. If you're not sure where to start, well, let Brian doe, a tenured, Certified Financial Planner with more than 20 years of experience, be your trusted partner in the planning process as a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER professional, Brian meets all the highest standards of training and ethics putting your best interests first, you can take advantage of a complimentary 15 minute call with Brian to get some clarity around those financial goals and prepare for a more secure tomorrow. All you have to do is go to living worth.com that's living worth.com and click book a call, or you can dial 706451, 9800 contact info is in the description of today's show, so go check it out there, Brian, thanks for the breakdown and keep making the dough rise. We'll look forward talking to you next month. It was a pleasure. I'll do that. Sounds great. Thanks for joining us, everybody. We'll see you again next time, right back here on make the dough rise with Brian doe,
Speaker 3 34:22
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Ben George 35:01
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