Looking Back... Vindication (Ep 89)
We'll revisit our prior conversations about ESG, DEI, and Woke Capitalism on today's episode. Have Brian's warnings about blindly following these investing fads found merit? We'll hit a few other topics as well, touching base on upcoming tax rate changes and breaking down some problematic financial advisor personalities and strategies. And is Taylor Swift stealing business from Disney? Tune in to learn about all of this and more on today's episode.
Transcript - The following transcript was generated by a robot, so please excuse any typos or inaccuracies.
Environmental social governance and diversity. (1:00)
Focus on profit instead of social issues?(6:55)
The rise and fall of the chief diversity officer. (9:40)
Tax rate changes that are coming up. (14:24)
Should we be doing something different with our investments? (22:41)
Speaker 1 0:02
It's time to Make the Dough Rise the financial podcast with Brian Doe.
Walter Storholt, co-host 0:11
Hey, welcome to another edition of make the dough rise. I'm Walter stalled alongside Brian doe certified financial planner at living worth Wealth Advisors, you can find us online at Living worth.com. We've got a great episode today we're going to try to keep Brian from hurting himself. He's going to be patting himself on the back pretty hard in today's episode, as we look back at some conversations and predictions that Brian had not all that long ago. And to be honest, you've been vindicated in many ways here, Brian and and kind of proven correct in some of your analysis of the different things we're going to dive into today. So although we joke about you patting yourself on the back there a little bit, Brian, no, this is good insight to kind of look back and check in on some comments that you had recently on a couple of various topics and see how it's all panned out over the last few months. So I'm intrigued by today's episode.
Brian Doe 1:00
So I've got to look back today, one that's gonna go way back. And we'll get to that in a little bit. And this one, I was vindicated very quickly. And it all revolves around the ESG, environmental social governance issue that you're hearing a lot about, trying to use non financial metrics to guide corporate action decisions, hiring behaviors, benefits, all that kind of stuff. And the Diversity Equity and Inclusion monitor which are closed, they're close cousins, they're a little bit different, but they're kind of the same. And I would I would lump them together in the woke capitalism, and applying these kind of woke social justice criteria to managing your business. And you know, don't get me wrong, I don't want anybody stinking up and polluting the atmosphere. I don't want anybody mistreating employees or you know, not hiring somebody for racial reasons, all of that behavior is abhorrent. And I get what some of the champions of these criteria are wanting or for the positive side of it. But but they've, they were taking it so far is to throw financial sense out the window. And so back in episode 52, we talked about the politically incorrect guide to investing. And I've had a friend that called me and was working on an article because her clients were interested in ESG investments, everybody wanted ESG, especially the millennial and younger crowd. And I said, you know, it just looks like a scam that was kind of the angle I had that was Wall Street was sort of propping up this idea of do goodness. While on the back end, they were like super charging you for an overpriced index fund that had these woke criteria applied to it. And I think it was also used as a fail to cover up some of their own discriminatory practices against women or whatever it is, I won't do a whole lap back around the topic. So that was episode 52. And then just recently, about five episodes back, we talked about the Diversity Equity and Inclusion issue and we tweak the acronym to di e and basically making sure you avoid these companies that are engaging in these types of non financial non competence based criteria. And the big vindication moment came just recently if you've if you've followed Bud Light at all, Have you have you kept up with the Bud Light saga? Yeah, I don't know
Walter Storholt, co-host 3:45
how anybody hadn't heard at least a little bit about that. That story over the last couple of months, right?
Brian Doe 3:50
Yeah. So I think they just had a super woke, Director of Marketing they were going to put somebody in there that was going to bring diversity and representation and all this to update this fratty you know, sophomore brand that Bud Light had. Well, it turns out that Bud Light it's been about 30 years building up its brand and its audience and they they came out with a partnership with a transgender activist or influencer
Walter Storholt, co-host 4:23
influencers probably an appropriate term, someone who's just trying to basically make a living on social media, right?
Brian Doe 4:31
Yeah. And they partnered up it was really just kind of a side little deal, but it just blew up into an absolute catastrophe for Bud Light and Bud Light. We had been the number one selling beer in the country and I think now they're currently at number four, which if you think about is a massive, massive move, and so if you are going to promote and jam a concept on to your core consumer that They're not on board with, there is a financial peril to that, and InBev, the parent company, which ironically, isn't even an American brand anymore, it's German, they lost billions of dollars in market capitalization. And Bud Light sales have just plummeted. And granted still sells a lot of beer at number four, but it was not nearly what it was. Well, if you think about your distributors, your retailers, everybody, and then the shareholders who who hold the stock, all of a sudden management was very accountable to explaining why they were going in this particular direction, because you know, billions of dollars and lots of jobs and retail space and transportation and everything that goes into the supply chain of, of distributing beer was drastically disrupted, and they had to start giving it away just to move it out. Now, in the ultimate mega corporation, irony here, I think the other two or three brands that have moved into the first, second, third spots are also indirectly or maybe through a subsidiary owned by InBev. It's like the same corporation owns all of them. And so they're still capturing all of the beer sales, because these were very commoditized type of products, very substitutable. One one for the other. But, you know, if you were invested in a company that had one main product, or that was their main product, and you didn't have the two and three spots behind it, it could have been an absolute absolute disaster for them. So definitely, less than there, and I think one that's going to be studied in the marketing books for quite some time.
Walter Storholt, co-host 6:55
Yeah, it's really interesting, because this is kind of what you were talking about, like, alright, that's, this is the the danger, or the concern is when we start putting these things, maybe overweighting. You know, the concerns of the social side over just the dollars side, right? It's that old, you know, do we do we focus on profit is should that be the main driver of any business, and most business owners will tell you, yeah, focus, focus on profit, that's otherwise, you're not gonna have a business to then do other social stuff with or all the auxilary thing. So that's always got to come first. And it just seems like certain companies have gotten way out of balance with kind of keeping that in mind. And that's what your big concern seemed like it was over all of the different ESG and dei initiatives. And the focus is it was just getting way out of weight. And that's where were you were just like, I just want to stay away from this concept right now. Because things just are overweighted in the wrong direction right now. From a purely business standpoint, this isn't this isn't doing good business. If these way,
Brian Doe 7:57
yeah, if you think about a marketing initiative, you are you really tuned in and in touch with your core consumer, if for some reason you're trying to change that, maybe do it gradually and not so so drastically. I don't know. But the other names do that we've seen some speculation or or actual boycotts on Disney and, and target, and that there's been a lot of drop off in Disney attendance. And I'm gonna offer an alternate theory on that here in just a minute. But they've they've really pushed the woke and diversity type topics to the point where, like, Bud Light, it was almost, we're gonna just jam this on you, we're gonna impose this on you, whether you like it or not, you know, I think people people eventually, at some point, get guitar or reacting to it. And then target they got caught in a big backlash boycott this summer. Because I think they were all onboard with the pride but they had a whole line of clothing targeting and aimed at children. And I won't even go into the details of it, but they they partnered, they had some very inappropriate clothing items for children. And then they had partnered with an artist that also happened to have a lot of satanic artwork and very, very inappropriate stuff. And it once it surfaced, everybody was like, whoa, hold on. That's not not whatever we're interested in. So hopefully, some of these financial consequences will send a message up and down and and have even seen an article recently on Yahoo Finance. Where Larry Fink Do you remember I'm talking about Larry Fink? Of BlackRock. So he was one of the big proponents of ESG and we really kind of help. I don't know if he started the buzz phrase of ESG or if he was he definitely was one of the big champions of it. You can find clips of him talking about it. quite a ways back. But there was even an article that said the headline of the article was good riddance ESG woke is walking Larry Fink CEO of investor investing giant Blackrock said he'll no longer be using buzz, the buzz phrase II S G. Well, I don't know if he's gonna stop using the buzz phrase, but still promote some of the policies, because some of the policies go back to divesting from in or not investing or not providing capital to energy companies, because this intersects with the climate agenda. And although the global warming movement, and so there's been a lot of trouble with getting financing for for certain energy companies, and when you get a company as large as Blackrock that controls, bond issuances, and debt access, it's been a clear and measurable skew away from financing for oil and energy companies, when there's probably something we need to focus on with the gas and shale revolution that we've had in the US. Those are far cleaner sources than coal. And there's one of the other things being burned around the world to create energy. So it's, I'll be curious to watch and see if this truly does kind of go by the wayside now, or if maybe this at least puts it in check. So it's not the main thing that everybody's talking about. And the other one, too, that I saw just, I think it was just this weekend was an article by The Wall Street Journal, and the headline read the rise and fall of the chief diversity officer. And this is something that we had seen a lot of, you see a lot of it in academia, they have Dean's depart department heads focused on diversity, deploy whole departments focusing on this, and then it worked its way into corporations, and you have these diversity officers. Obviously, the intention of this sounds good, you know, let's let's get opportunities for underrepresented groups and make sure everybody has equal opportunity. But they were using it almost as a, just like a quota system. And it begs the question, or it leads you to ask, are you getting the most qualified people in there, or you just putting a person in there because they're female or a different race or ethnicity or something like that. And obviously, competence needs to be number one, in the business world, there are places where you can, you know, education maybe is a better place to focus on raising people up and giving them access to opportunity. But if you're doing it at the expense of results, it's eventually going to catch up to you. And I think that was my main point to begin with.
Walter Storholt, co-host 12:52
Yeah, lots of things catching up. It sounds like could be applied to many of these conversations. You mentioned an alternative theory to to the Disney situation.
Brian Doe 13:02
What Okay, so now going back, we everybody knows I've talked way too much about Taylor Swift on this podcast already. Having a big, big Swifty, and I have an old first Swifty at home, actually three of them. And somebody calculated that this eras tour is turning into a about a $3.7 billion phenomenon. So if you add up the ticket prices, everybody buys outfits and gets all decked out. They go stay at hotels, they go out to eat, they all the stuff that people are spending money on to go in participate in one of the arrows tours. That's a 3.7 dollar draw on consumer resources. So Disney park attendances have been down about 25% below expectations since March, which is exactly when the era's tour began. And so if you look at the economic concept of substitution, is if you get X number of dollars, you get limited resources. Where are you going to spend your money to maximize your enjoyment of it? And and a substitution would be if you decided to go to the eras tour and spend money on the Taylor Swift phenomenon. You only have a certain window to do that. And that's why that tour is happening. So maybe people were not spending money on ultimate entertainment like Disney. And so if half of the people that went to the Taylor Swift concert, went in lieu of going to Disney, which is a pretty big bold assumption, but let's just for fun if if half had gone to Disney instead, Taylor Swift was single handedly the cause of the drop in attendance at Disney so nice. That's just a Swifty theory, but
Walter Storholt, co-host 14:56
that's correlation is not necessarily equal causation, but still adjust the numbers.
Brian Doe 15:02
Yeah, but But I mean, seriously, there has to be some factor of it. Because if you're spending that much money on your 10,000, couple 1000 few $1,000 to take a couple people to
Walter Storholt, co-host 15:15
a whole equivalent expenditures there for sure. Yeah, absolutely. I
Brian Doe 15:19
can see where people are like, alright, we'll do the Taylor Swift show where we'll cut out, maybe not Disney specifically. But we'll cut out other things that that would have been like it so
Walter Storholt, co-host 15:28
well. It's just like the beer situation. Right. So a lot of people stopped drinking Bud Light, but they didn't stop drinking beer. So those dollars just replaced elsewhere.
Brian Doe 15:36
Right. Yeah. And I think it's a testament of a still healthy economy and consumer demand, people are having fun, we're past COVID. You know, there's a lot of good stuff happening. Yeah. And, you know, just just stay cautiously aware and avoid the woke phenomenon and make make sure you're not getting involved in companies that are over emphasizing that to the, to the detriment of their profit, and ultimately, your share price.
Walter Storholt, co-host 16:07
But we mentioned, we're going to be looking back at a couple of different things. In today's episode, a bit of a hodgepodge of topics. In today's conversation, something that felt a really far way away, Brian, when we first started talking about it, were the tax rate changes that are coming down the pike, you know, we've been kind of in that lowered at tax environment with some benefits to many of us for quite some time. Well, that end date started draw a little bit closer and sound a little bit closer than it was when we first started talking about it.
Brian Doe 16:35
Yeah, I've been having a lot of really good tax planning sessions. And I've, I've added a really, really good I've talked about it before, but I've got a really great new tax planning tool that I'm getting a lot of mileage out with, out of with clients, where we scan in a previous year's return, and then we're able to look and see what are the different tax traps that we've talked about many times? What's it going to do to your marginal income tax bracket, bracket? What's it going to do your capital gains tax rate? How's it impacting the taxability of Social Security? And when you begin that potentially impact of taking money out of IRAs versus other sources like capital gains? And then what's that? What does that going to do to your Medicare supplement premiums. And so I've, I've been putting people's returns in, and it really helps me make sure we're getting all the information off the tax return. But then we can run scenarios where we can begin to plan for this year. And next, what were the best places to pull money in or realize gains and things like that. But the really great feature of it is, there's a drop down button, that you can either stick with current law, or you can add in the sunset provisions to the Trump era tax cuts. And in 2026, we are going back to the rates and the brackets and the rules of the Obama era rates. Well, that may be good for you if you're getting capped out on your state and local tax deductions. But if you're having a lot of Ira distributions, because that's where the bulk of your retirement funds are, this could be a two to six percentage point increase in in tax rates, roughly. Nothing precise about that, but just just from what I've seen, and so it's really good to know, again, let's use the next couple of years to take any advantage of lower tax rates, which can lead to the realization of capital gains, Roth conversions, you maybe you're in a high income tax bracket now and we should evaluate whether that's actually going to come down in the future. And in maybe the things that may make sense for one person, maybe the opposite applies to you. But suffice it to say the change is coming. It's coming soon. Soon, you still have a couple years to take advantage of these things. And we've got some great, great tools to help you forecast and calculate that.
Walter Storholt, co-host 19:13
I usually wait till the end of the episode to tell you all the ways you can get in touch with Brian but just since if anybody's really concerned about that tax change that's coming down the pike and some of those tools that Brian can use to help you analyze your situation. Don't hesitate to reach out and to have a conversation about it. You can go to living worth.com Click that book a call button or you can dial 706-451-9800. 706-451-9800 I mentioned it was a bit of a hodgepodge episode. Today, Brian and I kind of our main topic of the day beyond some of the, you know, ESG and DEI conversations and these tax changes. You've also just been having some fun conversations with clients and maybe you've been hearing some stories about people working with with other advisors and so it kind of got us thinking, what are some of the more problematic personalities that might exist out there of rogue advisors? what are maybe some red flags that we can be on the lookout for and spot some of those kinds of concerns. And so we've kind of pegged three personalities you might want to be aware of, if you're ever looking or shopping for a financial advisor, because these tend to be somewhat prevalent in the industry. And that can be problematic if you get your money, your life savings involved with somebody who maybe doesn't have all your best interest in mind, or all the tools at their disposal to be able to help you in the same ways that a fully competent, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER might be able to. So Brian, what are what's one of those personalities we should highlight on today's show? Yeah,
Brian Doe 20:43
personalities or approaches to the business, I've been getting a lot of people recently, and over the years even, that I would say, a fallen victim to the the one trick pony, the one hit wonder they've got one product that they're just fanatical about, they do whole free steak dinners talking about how this one product will solve all your problems. And when you go in with money, all of your money ends up in, in this case, in annuities, I see a tremendous amount of people coming in with old annuities, they bought old annuities, a parent has bought one that they're being sold today. And, or even ones that I don't want to totally disparage them, because I use them in a few select cases, which is how you should use most products, you know, as they're appropriate. But yeah, they change the rules, they change the cap to change the spreads and things that are there's a lot going on in them. And so people will come in and they'll have worked with a they've got the title, financial advisor, wealth advisor, whatever it is. But surprisingly, every time they had extra money, they got a different annuity. And they don't go together. There's no particular strategy to it, it doesn't match the timeline of when they might need the money. They're stuck and locked into long deferred sales charge periods. They can't get their money out without incurring these penalties. And so it becomes very hard to help people. And the really tragic thing about it is is people have no idea what they've bought, they don't know realize what all the fees are. I had a client in my office last week, and she had this statements. And right now money markets paying five, but 5% CDs, you get five, five and a quarter, something like that five and a half. There's some really good CD rates out there. And so he said, should we be doing something different? Well, we started breaking down the investments. And I found I found the investment, which happened to be an investment wrapper that was made up of a whole bunch of other funds. So you have the insurance company taking out a certain fee, then you have the fund of funds, charging a fee. And then the funds that are in the fund of funds also have a fee. And by the time we got done, I think they were probably handily in the three three and a half percent fee, and was getting, you know, 1234 percentage return for long time periods when you would have been far but she seemed to be getting all the volatility and the risk of the market was concerned number one, but then long term, the results were in the low single digits. So she was actually taking a lot of market risk, and was not realizing you know, market type returns because of all the the fees dragging on there. And so watch, watch the one trick wonder and anybody that is a little too excited about a particular product. And you know, they try to shoehorn you into that one product for a solution.
Walter Storholt, co-host 23:56
Another type of advisor you could run into, in addition to the one trick pony might be the expensive, but empty suit, what is somebody who kind of fits that description end up looking like in terms of advisor relationship?
Brian Doe 24:10
Well, I would say I got to experience some of that in my days at a large Wall Street firm where you bet a lot of mahogany and fancy furniture and expensive looking offices. And it's nice to know that you've got a credible, reputable institution that you're dealing with. But just make sure you're not paying for a lot of decorations that don't also come with or are backed by deep knowledge, expertise and understanding of all the financial planning, the portfolio, the insurance, the estate planning, all the things that go into a real financial plan, longevity, long term care, you got to get all of that factor down. And so many times you get people that are very good at one area or the other. or maybe a couple of them at best. And they've got a good look, they gotta get peel, they get a great team. They're dressed nice their offices fancy. But so often I find that at the end of the day, they're either lacking, or are discouraged because of liability to the firm from giving true comprehensive advice. So you're paying the premium more for the brand, and all the accessories and things that look nice about it. But you may not be getting actual real, full, comprehensive advice for the price that you're paying. So make sure you've got some criteria again, I happen to think that the CFP is a good indication, maybe as a another barometer, I always tell clients to say, when was the last time your financial advisor asked for a copy of your tax return? Are they actually looking at how what they're doing is playing out on your tax return? And so more often than not, the answer is never. And so there's a couple good ways to make sure you're not overpaying and getting that high priced, expensive state.
Walter Storholt, co-host 26:09
Yeah, it's a great point and a good one to bring up on the show. Alright, last but not least, let's say one other personality or style of approach to investing in financial planning that people might run into, and that would be the, what we'll call the Armageddon prophet.
Brian Doe 26:25
You see a lot of this on advertisements on in between the shows on CNBC, you get a lot of it on YouTube, online ads, radio shows, there's a lot of people out there that are all doom and gloom or everything's get in overwhelmingly, these people are selling books, and seminars, or they're selling like gold and precious metals or some some kind of fund or maybe it's an insurance product, those are usually the ones that I say. But I was doing some cleaning out this past weekend, and was going through some old books in my in my bunker and just trying to make some space for new books and other clutter to bring in. And I found this book called financial reckoning day. And this was given me given to me by a colleague at Merrill Lynch back in 2004. And this guy, he was great guy, you know, real, honest, ethical, good, good person, but just Oh worried, always worried about that, or the monetary system or government what they were doing and a financial collapse and anything bad that could go wrong. And he got hold of this, you know, this particular book about the financial reckoning day in the subtitle of the book is surviving the soft depression of the 21st century. Let's quit a title because is he talking about a century long depression? Or is this going to be a depression that begins in the century and we never get back on track? I mean, that's a massive sounding prediction. But I looked inside the book jacket, and talks is written by a reviewer and very quickly says, this book is brimming with down to earth wisdom and take it to heart lessons. Financial reckoning day tells you why the Information Age stock boom, went bust with sobering insights into such companies as amazon.com. And Cisco Systems. Well, at the moment, this was in 2004, I think the copyright date on this book was maybe the end of 2003, copyright 2003. So we were at the, at the end of about a three year run on the.com Bubble busting, and that whole balloon was off the off the rose air, I guess, as the expression goes. And so this guy was writing off the whole information age. And obviously, Amazon had gone up from $1 to 100, and was probably back down to $1 to $5, or something like that. But really, this was all just getting started. This was a decades long phenomenon. And if you had bought Amazon and Cisco At those times, over the last 20 years, you've actually made a lot of money. The other one they mentioned here was global crossing that one actually, you know that some companies are going to fail for sure. But I thought it was just interesting that he was taking this opportunity time when things were not going well for tech stocks and then predicts that in extrapolates this out into the future, and it makes it sound like we're gonna go into this in at least a decade long recession when really the opposite happened. We we think he's calling it why Hi spending Hi Borrowing consumerism leveraged the US economy in what you might expect from the soft, slow depression in the decade ahead. Well, the decade ahead was actually a recovery out of the.com bubble, and then a rapid and not at all soft financial crisis that came out of the housing sector and the whole subprime thing. So what while he's on tour, right concept here, hi borrowing consumerism, there was a lot of other factors involved, too. And it was the banks, the brokerages, getting involved in this money making phenomenon, collateralized debt obligations played into it, government policy that was promoting and pushing this, lots of factors, but it was that was kind of a swift, and very specific sector that that led to that. So anyway, I just, I read these books, I go back and find this. And it's kind of like the Taylor Swift calculation. There's an element of truth, these things, but be careful of getting drugged down by doom and gloom, or getting caught up into putting all of your portfolio in gold or treasuries, or insurance products or things like that. Because it is a very bad that, in my opinion, this is kind of a play on Warren Buffett's quote, you know, don't don't ever bet against America. The other topic they talked about in this book was why Japan's miracle economy unexpectedly collapsed, and why the monetary stimulus failed to revive it. Well, that's true, Japan did sort of stall out. But I think as we look back on that, that is more of a demographic phenomenon. They did not have a replacement generation. And so they're dealing with a very, very aging population. And I suspect, China will be next on the list to go the way of Japan because they've got the same problem happening there. And America still continues to be a great place to protect private property, protect intellectual property rights, we continue to attract top talent from around the world. One of India's biggest problems is brain drain. People that get education and get qualified to go to Southeast Asia, they'll come to the US though, they'll go to places where it's friendlier to advancement, startups and and economic growth. And our infrastructure has some issues. But we've got an infrastructure system between rivers and roads and railroads. That is nothing short of spectacular. So don't fall for the doom and gloom don't fall for the Armageddon Prophet, it, in my opinion, is just gonna, it's gonna be a costly mistake for you as well.
Walter Storholt, co-host 32:58
Great points all throughout today's episode covered a lot of ground from taxes to different types of investments and failed theories to advise our personalities and strategies that probably won't lead you down the path of success. It's a lot to absorb. But if it leads you to have additional questions, well, listen up for the next few months, because I'm gonna tell you a little bit more about what it's like to work with an advisor who encompasses all of these different angles into a financial plan to make sure that you're well prepared for your future. Speaking of your future, are you looking to take more control of that financial future, but not exactly sure. Like, where's the starting point? Where's that starting foundation? Well, you can let Brian Doe, seasoned CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER with more than 20 years of experience. Be your trusted partner whether you want to create a solid retirement plan, whether it's receiving expert guidance on optimizing your investments, or perhaps like we talked a little bit about today, avoiding costly tax traps, whatever it is, Brian's got you covered. And don't forget that as a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER professional, he meets the highest standards of education, training, and ethics, always putting your best interests first. So if you want to get in touch with Brian, take advantage of a 15 minute complimentary call to gain clarity on your financial goals and prepare for that more secure tomorrow. Don't miss out on this opportunity. Reach out and let's pave the way to financial success together. The ways to reach out are simple, you can certainly do it online at living worth.com and click the book a call button again, just go to livingworth.com Or you can call directly 706-451-9800, 706-451-9800. That contact info will be in the description of today's show so you can find it easily as well. Well, Brian, thank you for breaking down all of these different moving parts and angles on today's show enjoyed all the different conversation today. And I know we'll have another good episode on tap next month.
Brian Doe 34:54
Sounds great. I enjoyed it. Good talking to you, Walter.
Walter Storholt, co-host 34:57
Really appreciate it. Thanks, everybody for joining us civil Talk to you next time right back here on make the dough rise
Announcer 2 35:13
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Announcer 3 35:51
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Transcribed by https://otter.ai
